Informing investment to reduce inequalities: a modelling approach

Background: Reducing health inequalities is an important policy objective but there is limited quantitative information about the impact of specific interventions. Objectives: To provide estimates of the impact of a range of interventions on health and health inequalities. Materials and methods: Literature reviews were conducted to identify the best evidence linking interventions to mortality and hospital admissions. We examined interventions across the determinants of health: a ‘living wage’; changes to benefits, taxation and employment; active travel; tobacco taxation; smoking cessation, alcohol brief interventions, and weight management services. A model was developed to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in intervention and comparison populations over a 20-year time period following interventions delivered only in the first year. We estimated changes in inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). Results: Introduction of a ‘living wage’ generated the largest beneficial health impact, with modest reductions in health inequalities. Benefits increases had modest positive impacts on health and health inequalities. Income tax increases had negative impacts on population health but reduced inequalities, while council tax increases worsened both health and health inequalities. Active travel increases had minimally positive effects on population health but widened health inequalities. Increases in employment reduced inequalities only when targeted to the most deprived groups. Tobacco taxation had modestly positive impacts on health but little impact on health inequalities. Alcohol brief interventions had modestly positive impacts on health and health inequalities only when strongly socially targeted, while smoking cessation and weight-reduction programmes had minimal impacts on health and health inequalities even when socially targeted. Conclusions: Interventions have markedly different effects on mortality, hospitalisations and inequalities. The most effective (and likely cost-effective) interventions for reducing inequalities were regulatory and tax options. Interventions focused on individual agency were much less likely to impact on inequalities, even when targeted at the most deprived communities

Genetic variation in the HLA region is associated with susceptibility to herpes zoster.

Herpes zoster, commonly referred to as shingles, is caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV). VZV initially manifests as chicken pox, most commonly in childhood, can remain asymptomatically latent in nerve tissues for many years and often re-emerges as shingles. Although reactivation may be related to immune suppression, aging and female sex, most inter-individual variability in re-emergence risk has not been explained to date. We performed a genome-wide association analyses in 22,981 participants (2280 shingles cases) from the electronic Medical Records and Genomics Network. Using Cox survival and logistic regression, we identified a genomic region in the combined and European ancestry groups that has an age of onset effect reaching genome-wide significance (P>1.0 × 10(-8)). This region tags the non-coding gene HCP5 (HLA Complex P5) in the major histocompatibility complex. This gene is an endogenous retrovirus and likely influences viral activity through regulatory functions. Variants in this genetic region are known to be associated with delay in development of AIDS in people infected by HIV. Our study provides further suggestion that this region may have a critical role in viral suppression and could potentially harbor a clinically actionable variant for the shingles vaccine

Importance Sampling for Objetive Funtion Estimations in Neural Detector Traing Driven by Genetic Algorithms

To train Neural Networks (NNs) in a supervised way, estimations of an objective function must be carried out. The value of this function decreases as the training progresses and so, the number of test observations necessary for an accurate estimation has to be increased. Consequently, the training computational cost is unaffordable for very low objective function value estimations, and the use of Importance Sampling (IS) techniques becomes convenient. The study of three different objective functions is considered, which implies the proposal of estimators of the objective function using IS techniques: the Mean-Square error, the Cross Entropy error and the Misclassification error criteria. The values of these functions are estimated by IS techniques, and the results are used to train NNs by the application of Genetic Algorithms. Results for a binary detection in Gaussian noise are provided. These results show the evolution of the parameters during the training and the performances of the proposed detectors in terms of error probability and Receiver Operating Characteristics curves. At the end of the study, the obtained results justify the convenience of using IS in the training

Novel associations for hypothyroidism include known autoimmune risk loci

Hypothyroidism is the most common thyroid disorder, affecting about 5% of the general population. Here we present the first large genome-wide association study of hypothyroidism, in 2,564 cases and 24,448 controls from the customer base of 23andMe, Inc., a personal genetics company. We identify four genome-wide significant associations, two of which are well known to be involved with a large spectrum of autoimmune diseases: rs6679677 near _PTPN22_ and rs3184504 in _SH2B3_ (p-values 3.5e-13 and 3.0e-11, respectively). We also report associations with rs4915077 near _VAV3_ (p-value 8.3e-11), another gene involved in immune function, and rs965513 near _FOXE1_ (p-value 3.1e-14). Of these, the association with _PTPN22_ confirms a recent small candidate gene study, and _FOXE1_ was previously known to be associated with thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels. Although _SH2B3_ has been previously linked with a number of autoimmune diseases, this is the first report of its association with thyroid disease. The _VAV3_ association is novel. These results suggest heterogeneity in the genetic etiology of hypothyroidism, implicating genes involved in both autoimmune disorders and thyroid function. Using a genetic risk profile score based on the top association from each of the four genome-wide significant regions in our study, the relative risk between the highest and lowest deciles of genetic risk is 2.1

Should Research Ethics Encourage the Production of Cost-Effective Interventions?

This project considers whether and how research ethics can contribute to the provision of cost-effective medical interventions. Clinical research ethics represents an underexplored context for the promotion of cost-effectiveness. In particular, although scholars have recently argued that research on less-expensive, less-effective interventions can be ethical, there has been little or no discussion of whether ethical considerations justify curtailing research on more expensive, more effective interventions. Yet considering cost-effectiveness at the research stage can help ensure that scarce resources such as tissue samples or limited subject popula- tions are employed where they do the most good; can support parallel efforts by providers and insurers to promote cost-effectiveness; and can ensure that research has social value and benefits subjects. I discuss and rebut potential objections to the consideration of cost-effectiveness in research, including the difficulty of predicting effectiveness and cost at the research stage, concerns about limitations in cost-effectiveness analysis, and worries about overly limiting researchers’ freedom. I then consider the advantages and disadvantages of having certain participants in the research enterprise, including IRBs, advisory committees, sponsors, investigators, and subjects, consider cost-effectiveness. The project concludes by qualifiedly endorsing the consideration of cost-effectiveness at the research stage. While incorporating cost-effectiveness considerations into the ethical evaluation of human subjects research will not on its own ensure that the health care system realizes cost-effectiveness goals, doing so nonetheless represents an important part of a broader effort to control rising medical costs

Socio-cultural influences on the behaviour of South Asian women with diabetes in pregnancy: qualitative study using a multi-level theoretical approach

BACKGROUND: Diabetes in pregnancy is common in South Asians, especially those from low-income backgrounds, and leads to short-term morbidity and longer-term metabolic programming in mother and offspring. We sought to understand the multiple influences on behaviour (hence risks to metabolic health) of South Asian mothers and their unborn child, theorise how these influences interact and build over time, and inform the design of culturally congruent, multi-level interventions. METHODS: Our sample for this qualitative study was 45 women of Bangladeshi, Indian, Sri Lankan, or Pakistani origin aged 21-45 years with a history of diabetes in pregnancy, recruited from diabetes and antenatal services in two deprived London boroughs. Overall, 17 women shared their experiences of diabetes, pregnancy, and health services in group discussions and 28 women gave individual narrative interviews, facilitated by multilingual researchers, audiotaped, translated, and transcribed. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method, drawing on sociological and narrative theories. RESULTS: Key storylines (over-arching narratives) recurred across all ethnic groups studied. Short-term storylines depicted the experience of diabetic pregnancy as stressful, difficult to control, and associated with negative symptoms, especially tiredness. Taking exercise and restricting diet often worsened these symptoms and conflicted with advice from relatives and peers. Many women believed that exercise in pregnancy would damage the fetus and drain the mother's strength, and that eating would be strength-giving for mother and fetus. These short-term storylines were nested within medium-term storylines about family life, especially the cultural, practical, and material constraints of the traditional South Asian wife and mother role and past experiences of illness and healthcare, and within longer-term storylines about genetic, cultural, and material heritage - including migration, acculturation, and family memories of food insecurity. While peer advice was familiar, meaningful, and morally resonant, health education advice from clinicians was usually unfamiliar and devoid of cultural meaning. CONCLUSIONS: 'Behaviour change' interventions aimed at preventing and managing diabetes in South Asian women before and during pregnancy are likely to be ineffective if delivered in a socio-cultural vacuum. Individual education should be supplemented with community-level interventions to address the socio-material constraints and cultural frames within which behavioural 'choices' are made

Evaluation of a cervical cancer screening program based on HPV testing and LLETZ excision in a low resource setting

We conducted studies in Vanuatu to evaluate potential screening and treatment strategies to assist with control of cervical cancer. In a pilot study of 496 women, visual inspection and cytology were evaluated as screening tests for detection of CIN 2 or worse (CIN2+), observed in 21 of 206 subjects biopsied on the basis of abnormal visual inspection or cytology. Sensitivity of visual inspection with Lugol's Iodine for detection of CIN2+ on biopsy was 0.63, specificity was 0.32, and the positive predictive value was 0.09. For HSIL cytology, sensitivity was 0.99, specificity was 0.77, and the positive predictive value was 0.88. HSIL cytology was significantly more sensitive and had a significantly higher PPV for CIN 2+ than visual inspection (